FNAIM: COMME SUSPENDU DANS LE VIDE...

Voici aujourd'hui la mise à jour de la courbe FNAIM... Je vous rappelle qu'il n'est pas question ici de juger de la pertinence de ces chiffres mais seulement d'étudier leur comportement...

Vous pouvez également consulter le communiqué intégral.

Inutile donc de crier que la FNAIM est juge et partie car ce n'est pas le sujet...

+ 0.7% pour le mois d'octobre... c'est mou mais ça tient...

 

1- la "variation annuelle": pour la calculer, prenez la moyenne mobile 12 périodes ici en jaune. Prenez sa valeur actuelle (196.525) et sa valeur 12 mois plus tôt (182.625). Cette courbe a augmenté de 13.9 pts soit 7.61 %..(contre 7.74% le mois dernier).. une fois de plus, la hausse ralentit,  légèrement...

2- Le "rythme trimestriel": pour le calculer, prenez la moyenne mobile 3 périodes ici en vert. Ici, sur les trois derniers mois, la moyenne est passée de 200.33 à 200 soit une baisse  insignifiante(contre une hausse insignifiante le mois dernier) ... sur les 12 derniers mois, la moyenne est passée de 190.500 à 200 soit une hausse de 4.98% (4.54% le mois dernier)...

3- Prenons maintenant l'indice "brut", sans aucun lissage... sur les 12 derniers mois, il passe de 188 à 202 soit une hausse de 7.4% (4.7% le mois dernier)...

Remarquez comme l'utilisation de l'indice "brut" peut donner une fausse image de la situation...  un an plus tôt, la courbe se trouvait dans un creux, ce qui nous donne une hausse de 7.4% sur les 12 derniers mois alors que cette hausse n'était que de 4.7% le mois dernier... On pourrait en déduire une forte reprise de la hausse, ce qui n'est pas le cas...

L'utilisation des moyennes mobiles est à mon humble avis beaucoup plus judicieuse, car ce qui nous intéresse avant tout est de matérialiser une tendance...

Pour l'instant, ces moyennes mobiles sont haussières, la tendance est donc toujours haussière... notons toutefois que la moyenne mobile à 3 mois (verte) est plate, ce qui reflète bien l'impression actuelle de "stagnation" du marché....

Voyons maintenant ce que donnent nos indicateurs...

La faiblesse est toujours là...

Conclusion: A la manière de Vil Coyote qui reste toujours quelques instants à courir dans le vide avant de tomber dans le ravin, l'indice de la FNAIM fait semblant d'y croire encore... mais qui d'autre à part lui?

La malédiction !

Comments

[Marc Max Authier]

"Les ventes de maisons chutent précipitamment dans 38 états américains."
Le temps de la compostion des intérêts, des augmentations de coûts, d'augmentation de taxes fait toujours son oeuvre. TIC TAC TIC TAC TIC TAC.......

Home sales plummet in 38 states in 3rd quarter

Submitted by cpowell on 07:28PM ET Monday, November 20, 2006. Section: Daily Dispatches
By Lauren Villagran
Associated Press
Monday, November 21, 2006

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20061121/ap_on_bi_ge/economy

The feeble U.S. housing market showed more frailty when third-quarter home sales plummeted in 38 states, hitting Nevada, Arizona, Florida, and California particularly hard, government data showed on Monday.

The once-booming real estate market's persistent weakness over the past year has reined in expectations for economic growth but hasn't been severe enough to offset a rising stock market, lower gas prices, and improved consumer expectations.

The National Association of Realtors reported Monday that sales of existing homes fell in 38 states during the summer. Sales retreated to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.27 million units nationwide, down by 12.7 percent from the same period a year ago. Nevada, Arizona, Florida, and California led the declines.

Home prices also dropped: The Realtors' survey showed that the midpoint price for an existing home sold during the summer dipped 1.2 percent year over year to $224,900. Some 45 metropolitan areas saw home prices decline.

Meanwhile, the latest report of building permits showed the slowest pace of annual growth in nine years in October. Housing construction slid sharply as builders tried to curb swelling inventories of unsold new and existing homes.

Stuart Hoffman, chief economist at PNC Financial Services Group, said he thinks the housing market still hasn't reached its low point.

"I think the permits numbers point to yet another flight of stairs down on housing before we hit the basement," he said. "On the other side, stocks are rising, consumer confidence is good, and jobs are rising. Those factors are keeping this decline in housing contained."

A closely watched indicator of future economic activity released Monday provided further evidence of that trend.

The Conference Board, an industry-backed research group based in New York, reported Monday that its Index of Leading Economic Indicators rose 0.2 percent in October. Increased real money supply and improved consumer expectations helped offset the sharp decline in housing permits and weaker vendor performance.

"The economy is growing more slowly, but we have yet to have weakness spread beyond housing and motor vehicles to such a degree that we need to fear the proximity of a hard landing," said John Lonski, chief economist of Moody's Investor Service, referring to when the economy turns from growth to a recession.

The housing market slowdown has weighed on the leading indicators index this year. But all told, strengths and weaknesses in the leading indicators have been roughly balanced, according to the Conference Board report. The index stood at 138.3 versus 139.1 in January -- its peak so far this year. The index has declined four of the last seven months.

The Conference Board's labor economist, Ken Goldstein, said the October index suggests "the economy is unlikely either to reheat or to get significantly cooler."

"Instead, the kind of slow growth now being experienced could continue right through the winter and into the spring," Goldstein said.

In another sign of moderating economic growth, the Federal Reserve held its benchmark interest rate steady last month at 5.25 percent for the third straight session. The Fed had raised interest rates 17 times beginning in June 2004 to stave off inflation, before halting its campaign of credit-tightening in August.

* * *

[Marc Max Authier]

"Oh FNAIM! Suspends ton vol!" Je blague. En réalité plus le temps passe, plus la situation sera intenable.

[Marc Max Authier]

Coucou! Ça "crashe" aux USA ! Oh nous ne sommes qu'au tout début. Attendez que les ARMS (hypothèques à taux ajustables) et les HEMLOC's soient réajustés. Ça va saigner baby!

U.S. Economy: Housing Starts Tumble to Six-Year Low (Update1)

By Joe Richter

Nov. 17 (Bloomberg) -- Housing starts in the U.S. tumbled in October to the lowest level in more than six years, raising the prospect that the economy will be further weakened after growing last quarter at the slowest pace since 2003.

Builders broke ground on new dwellings at an annual rate of 1.486 million, down 14.6 percent from September, the Commerce Department said today in Washington. Building permits dropped to a 1.535 million pace, a record ninth straight decline and the lowest since December 1997.

The larger-than-expected drop raises the prospect that the worst isn't over for the residential property market, which is enduring its biggest slump in 15 years. The report also casts doubt on the Federal Reserve's assumption that the housing slide hasn't yet spilled over to the rest of the economy.

``This is a shocking number,'' said Phillip Neuhart, an economist at Wachovia Corp. in Charlotte, North Carolina. ``The market is going to remain weak well into next year.''

St. Louis Fed President William Poole told an audience in Wilmington, Delaware, on Nov. 14 that policy makers are paying ``special attention'' to housing, and that he's concerned about the number of would-be purchases being canceled. A day earlier, minutes of the central bank's October meeting said housing's troubles hadn't translated into a broader economic downturn.

Treasury notes gained after the report, pushing the yield on the benchmark 10-year note down 6 basis points to 4.61 percent as of 11:34 a.m. in New York. The dollar fell and the Standard and Poor's Supercomposite Homebuilding Index dropped 1.2 percent to 647.99.

Drag on Growth

``There's still a huge inventory bulge of unsold homes, so I don't think the correction will be over for a while,'' said Chris Low, chief economist at FTN Financial in New York. ``The drag on fourth-quarter growth from housing will be at least as bad as what we saw in the third quarter.''

Housing shaved 1.1 percentage points from economic growth last quarter. Gross domestic product increased 1.6 percent in the three months, the Commerce Department reported on Oct. 27.

Residential construction is likely to drop as much this quarter as last, according to a revised forecast today by economists at Morgan Stanley in New York. They shaved their estimate from fourth-quarter growth to an annual rate of 2.9 percent, a tenth of a percentage point lower than their previous projection.

Paring Inventories

Still, the degree of the downturn may eventually benefit the economy, said Morgan Stanley economist Ted Wieseman.

``On the positive side, we've probably reached a level of starts that will start to make significant progress in working down the bloated level of inventories of unsold new homes,'' said Wieseman.

The number of housing starts in October was the weakest since July 2000. Starts are down 27 percent from a year earlier.

Economists polled by Bloomberg News forecast starts would fall to a 1.68 million unit pace from an originally reported 1.772 million rate in September, according to the median of 68 estimates, which ranged from 1.58 million to 1.78 million.

Permits were expected to fall to 1.63 million from 1.638 million.

Construction of single-family homes fell 16 percent in October to a 1.177 million rate, today's report showed. Work on multifamily homes, such as townhouses and apartment buildings, fell 9.1 percent to an annual rate of 309,000.

Regional Differences

The decline was led by a 26 percent drop in the South. Starts also fell 12 percent in the Midwest and 2.1 percent in the West. Construction rose 31 percent in the Northeast.

The number of homes under construction fell 2.3 percent in October to a 1.292 million pace. Housing completions dropped 3.8 percent to an annual rate of 1.953 million.

The number of housing units authorized, though not yet started, decreased 2.5 percent to 200,200.

Higher mortgage costs and surging prices have put houses out of reach for many buyers.

The 30-year fixed mortgage rate has averaged 6.48 percent during the second half of this year. The rate was 5.87 percent for all of 2005, according to Freddie Mac, the No. 2 purchaser of home loans.

Toll Brothers Inc., the largest U.S. luxury home builder, said this month that revenue for the quarter ended Oct. 31 fell 10 percent compared with the same period last year and orders tumbled by more than half.

Cutting Forecasts

Chief Executive Officer Robert Toll said on a conference call Nov. 7 that there are no signs that the U.S. housing market will recover soon.

Toll said it will complete between 6,300 and 7,300 homes in the current fiscal year, less than the previous forecast in August of 7,000 to 8,000. The decline is due to cancellations and fewer contracts, the company said.

New-home prices in September declined 9.7 percent from a year earlier, the most since 1970, Commerce reported last month. The prospect of further price declines is keeping many prospective homebuyers on the sidelines, economists said.

``The excess supply of homes on the market is putting downward pressure on prices and that's making some potential buyers put off a purchase until the negative impact is finished or near finished,'' said David Berson, chief economist of Washington-based Fannie Mae, the world's largest mortgage company.

The number of homes available for sale averaged 556,000 a month this year through September. That compares with a 457,000 monthly average for the same period in 2005 and 351,000 during the past 10 years, according to government figures. The supply of homes in 2006 has been enough to last 6.3 months at this year's sales pace, up from an average of 4.4 months last year.

Fed Policy

The Fed raised overnight lending rate 17 straight times between June 2004 and June 2006. Central bankers last month left the benchmark lending rate at 5.25 percent for a third straight meeting.

Home construction shaved 1.12 percentage points off of third-quarter gross domestic product, the most since the final three months of 1981. The economy expanded at a 1.6 percent annual rate last quarter, the slowest in more than three years.

Growth will pick up this quarter to an annual rate of 2.5 percent from October through December, based on the median forecast of 85 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News from Oct. 30 to Nov. 9. The economy expanded at a 4.1 percent average rate in the first half of this year.

New-home sales will fall to 1.06 million this year from an all-time high of 1.28 million in 2005, the Mortgage Bankers Association said Oct. 24. Next year, sales will drop to 973,000, dipping below 1 million for the first time since 2002, according to the Washington-based trade group.

To contact the reporter on this story: Joe Richter in Washington Jrichter1@bloomberg.net

[Marc Max Authier]

Mais oui tout change. C'est juste que personne n'en parlera lorsque le dit objet du désir implosera.

[patrick]

Lle 26 octobre Kurt écrit "un krach m'apparait improbable". Or dans cette article tu as changé d'avis. Pour continuer dans l'esprit Toon's les questions à se poser sont:
Coyote peut-il encore courir longtemps dans le vide et défier les lois de la physique? ( 2 ans, 7 ans)
Coyote a t-il un parachute pour que sa chute soit douce au début ?
Si il a un parachute, quand va t-il se déchirer(Une année, 5 ans) pour qu'enfin il puisse tomber de haut

[kurt saturax]

non, je n'ai pas changé d'avis...