CAC 40 LUNDI 31 JUILLET 06

Journée sans grand relief après le fabuleux saut des 4950 pts de la semaine dernière... les volumes sont dérisoires et la bougie semble indiquer une simple consolidation...               

En daily, nous voyons une forte résistance vers 5070 (bleu épais) qui sera difficile à passer avec des indicateurs quasiment surachetés... cette zone comprend également la Bollinger supérieure et correspond à un retracement de 61.8% de la baisse précédente...

Les moyennes mobiles sont regroupées dans la zone des 4900 et ne donnent donc aucune indication, la tendance est neutre, légèrement haussière...

Le décompte Elliottiste a été revu mais reste baissier.

Cette zone des 5070 est cruciale, une stratégie agressive consisterait à vendre le marché dans cette zone en cas d'apparition d'une configuration favorable... nous y reviendrons...

La malédiction !

Comments

[Marc Max Authier]

AMUSANT:

USA l'inflation à son plus haut depuis les 11 dernières années. La consommation est stagnante. MAIS OUI C'EST COMMME LE MARCHÉ.

Je pense que les indices pour une des rares fois, reflète le contexte généralisé de STAGFLATION et de marasme. C'est à peine différent des années 70, sauf que cette fois-ci le taux d'endettement des consommateurs, des gouvernements est absolument surréaliste. La statistique que j'aime le mieux c'est le taux d'épargne négatif de -1,5% aux USA. Amusant n'est ce pas?


ECONOMIC REPORT
Core inflation rising at 11-year high in June
Real consumer spending tepid for fourth straight month


WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- U.S. core consumer inflation matched an 11-year high in June, keeping the pressure on the Federal Reserve to fight inflation, the Commerce Department reported Tuesday.
The core personal consumption expenditure price index, excluding food and energy, increased 0.2% for the third straight month in June, and has risen 2.4% in the past 12 months, matching the largest year-over-year gain since April 1995's 2.5% increase.
The core rate had also risen by 2.4% on a year-over-year basis in September 2002 and in May 1995.
Consumer prices including food and energy also rose 0.2% in June, and are up 3.5% in the past year.
Meanwhile, personal incomes rose 0.6% in June, outpacing the 0.4% increase in consumer spending. Read the full government report.
The personal savings rate rose to negative 1.5% from negative 1.6%, the 15th consecutive month of negative savings. Consumers can have negative savings by spending previous savings, or by borrowing or selling assets to support their consumption.
After adjusting for inflation, real consumer spending rose 0.2% in June, the fourth straight month of tepid spending. Factoring out taxes and inflation, real take-home pay rose 0.4%, the biggest increase in disposable income since December.
Real per capita disposable incomes rose 0.3%.
The gains in nominal monthly incomes, spending and inflation were exactly as expected by Wall Street economists surveyed by MarketWatch. See Economic Calendar.
The inflation figures continue to trouble Fed policymakers, who have said core prices are rising faster than they'd like. The Fed has raised interest rates 17 times in the past two years. Much of the impact of those rate hikes has yet to be felt, Fed officials have said.
The evident slowdown in economic growth, largely due to a weaker housing market and high energy prices, should also remove inflationary pressures over time, officials have said.
Markets are expecting the Fed to stand pat in August to reassess monetary policy. Two Fed officials said Monday that the decision about whether to raise rates again would be a close call, and would depend in part on incoming data on growth and inflation. See full story.
Looking to July
The July jobs report is likely to have the greatest influence on Fed thinking. See full story.
Core inflation will likely accelerate to 2.5% in July, said Stephen Stanley, chief economist for RBS Greenwich Capital.
"This is why we think that the Fed has to tighten again next week. Pure and simple. Core inflation is too high and still accelerating," Stanley said.
"It is very risky for the Fed to stop hiking when inflation is still accelerating."
The June data on incomes, spending and inflation provided monthly details to the quarterly figures released last Friday in the report on gross domestic product. That report showed core consumer inflation had risen 2.3% from the second quarter of 2005 to the second quarter of 2006. See full story.
Incomes got a boost in June from higher hourly wages. Nominal compensation of employees increased 0.6% in June, with wages also up 0.6%.
Income from assets rose 1.5% in June, the third straight gain over 1%. Proprietors' income increased 0.1%.
Nominal disposable per capita income rose 0.5% to $31,705.
"By now, it is evident that consumer spending is showing the strains of elevated gasoline prices and a slowing housing market, while for debt-laden consumers higher interest rates have increased the burden of monthly debt service payments," said Stu Hoffman, chief economist for PNC. "With little relief from any of these factors likely in the near term, consumers are becoming increasingly reliant on wage growth to support spending."
Real spending on durable goods rose 0.5%, the first gain in three months. Real spending on nondurable goods increased 0.3% and real spending on services increased 0.1%, the weakest gain since January.
"With after-tax real incomes up only 0.4% year over year, and the housing correction making equity extraction rather less attractive, spending growth is likely to slow further," said Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist for High Frequency Economics. End of Story