CAC 40 MARDI 16 MAI 2006

Comme subodoré hier, les forces haussières se sont manifestées dès l'ouverture mais une dernière poussée baissière a bien dû donner des sueurs à certains.... Après un double creux sur 5045, la séance a été placée sous le signe de la hausse..modeste, mais le support a tenu et c'est bien là l'information de la journée...

Nous avons une petite bougie blanche, montrant bien l'arrêt (provisoire?) du mouvement baissier précédent... les volumes sont toujours conséquents...

Nous voyons bien sur le graphique daily cette petite bougie posée sur la Bollinger inférieure... Une entrée long peut être tentée au dessus du plus haut du jour, mais étant donné le profil de la baisse qui précède (divergences, violence, vomumes), inutile de vous dire que cette stratégie est très risquée... Un pull back en direction de la MM20 et la ligne de tendance semble toutefois probable...

Les indicateurs, survendus, ne demandent qu'à repartir dans l'autre sens, le rebond a donc toutes les cartes en main pour se poursuivre...

Attention donc à ce support bleu à 5070, s'il lache, ça peut faire mal...

La malédiction !

Comments

[phev]

K U R T , Q U E L L E J O U R N E E !

P****N que c'est bon !!!!

Je ne te dis pas l'adrénaline !!!!!!!

[mock]

bon il manque les graphe dommage

la situation ressemble a 87 non???

[mock]

Ne pas shorter l or

Voici un article interressant:

Sector Alert
WITH GOLD AND SEVERAL OTHER METALS enjoying a super bull in recent months, chatter on Wall Street started to sound a lot like it did for the Nasdaq back in early 2000. While not comparing the two markets directly, there are some similarities between them that are particularly noteworthy, namely their respective defiance of gravity and widespread interest by the media and the public alike.
But no market can sustain a rally of this ferocity for long. On the charts, gold futures have taken on a parabolic shape that, if continued, would bring it to $1000 per ounce in a matter of days (see Chart 1). Even the most vociferous gold bull would have a hard time accepting that projection. Sooner or later, the laws of supply and demand will trump the overzealous emotions of the marketplace.
CHART 1

One expression that comes to mind--and we'll have to thank 1970s reggae star Jimmy Cliff for it--is "The harder they come, the harder they fall." Any market that is caught in a strong emotional rally with its rate of change increasing to a near vertical slope (the parabolic shape) becomes very risky for both bulls and bears alike and the higher it goes, the more likely it will be to decline in the same manner in which it rose. In other words, parabolic up tends to lead to parabolic down.
Trying to pick a top can get one trampled by the stampeding herd. But buying new positions can get investors into the herd just as it is about to thunder off a cliff. We can never know which scenario will be true at any specific time.
Last week, gold and its cousins reached lofty levels and the technicals started to object. Momentum indicators in the weekly time frame were firmly ensconced in overbought territory and gold stocks, which many, including this analyst, believe lead the metals themselves, scored reversal patterns despite the new multi-decade high in the latter. In short, a peak was in the making (see Chart 2).
CHART 2

True, trading that peak would have been very risky as we've seen times before when some technical indicators were flashing warnings. The market ignored them then so why are things pulling back now?
For starters, the US dollar finally found some buyers and since gold is priced in dollars, it seemed that this was an excuse to embolden the gold bears. That is something we could not have known last week, especially since the dollar itself was in an emotional trend of its own.
Another clue was the bearish technical divergence seen in several indicators for silver (see Chart 3). The metal suffered a major setback in mid-April and the subsequent rally into last week's highs came with less power than this market had previously. Rather than seeing aggressive buyers, the rally from last month's correction seemed to be more due to the bears just giving up.
CHART 3

Chart watchers see that in momentum indicators such as the relative strength index. The gains, while consistent over time, came with fits and starts and the resulted in a lower high in the indicator while prices made a higher high. Prices tend to move in the direction of the indicator soon thereafter.
Looking at the chart, gold, which is currently trading at about $679 an ounce, can easily correct to the 600 an ounce without breaking its short-term trend and to the mid-500s without breaking its long-term bull market trend. Gold stocks, as represented by the American Stock Exchange gold index, can fall to 140 to its short-term trend and to 112 in the longer-term, which was a level from which it made a major breakout last year.
For individual investors looking to participate in the rally in gold stocks, this seems to be the wrong time to get in , although this is far from a call for investors to short gold stocks. After the dust settles in a few weeks we will be able to assess how the group fared in terms of how far it fell and how it reacted when individual supports were reached. We should also be able to analyze which individual stocks made out better than others and the ones that fell the least should be the ones that lead the charge if and when it does resume.
If metals and metals stocks turn right around here to head higher immediately, then the risk profile would remain just as high as it was before.

[Pierre102]

Il faut laisser respirer ses positions, mais c est un peu long je trouve. (depuis hier pardon)
Pierre102

[Pietranera]

Je vous déconseille de vendre de l'or à découvert :

Ah, the answer is that the fundamentals are in favor of the ... the primary trend of the precious metals has turned bullish. Shorting against the primary trend of any item is a ticket to disaster. ... The precious metals short sellers are aligned AGAINST the primary trend. That's why they can't sit. That's why they are being forced to cover.
"Thus the shorts in gold and silver are trapped, and it's just a matter of how or which way they are forced to cover. Yes, the primary trend is subject to corrections, but in bull markets the corrections are always temporary, and in due time the items advance to new highs."
This makes sense. A short squeeze, like a pair of scissors, has two components. In any market, professional traders occasionally trap one another, settle, and move on. But if the buying stems from what Russell calls "primary" causes (Iran fears, for example?) the shorts have a serious problem.

Le dollar ne va pas remonter, mais plutot plonger, "Le Venezuela envisage de libeller son pétrole en euros", des commandos sont en route pour l'Europe, l'Iran prépare sa bombe, le japon, la chine et l'inde achètent de l'or (voir cette nuit), l'inflation est rèelle, la monnaie se dévalue, ect,etc,... une seule cause et hop, c'est la hausse brutale de l'or, .... rester en dehors si vous voulez mais ne vendez à découvert qu'en cas de certitude absolue !

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B41604753%2D25CC%2D45E0%2D956C%2DF51CE72E052D%7D&siteid=mktw&dist=