IMMOBILIER US: PAS DE KRACH A L'HORIZON

Je vous propose aujourd'hui de faire le point sur le marché immobilier US, marché qui fait actuellement couler beaucoup d'encre car son effondrement aurait de graves conséquences dans le monde entier...

Dans le but de nous faire une opinion la plus objective possible, je vous propose d'étudier différents supports...

Commençons par le reit index, indice global du secteur immobilier US... (daily)

 

Même la pire des tanches peut voir sur ce graphique que l'indice se porte à merveille, le gros trou d'air du printemps n'est qu'un vieux souvenir....

Le marché n'anticipe donc pas de retournement du secteur...

Regardons maintenant ce que nous dit l'indice de la construction... (home construction index, daily)

Ici, c'est différent... cet indice a été quasiment divisé par deux! Le rebond entamé cet été semble correctif et le scénario le plus probable est une reprise ultérieure de la baisse...

Conclusion: Le marché de la construction a beaucoup souffert mais le marché immobilier, après avoir souffert lui aussi dans un premier temps s'est ressaisi et a totalement résorbé son déclin, le marché est confiant... attention toutefois si la baisse de l'indice de la construction reprennait, les choses pourraient changer...

Regardons maintenant ce qui se passe dans le monde des banques et du refinancement hypothécaire...

 

 Du côté des banques, aucune inquiétude non plus...

Enfin, regardons se qui se passe du côté de Fannie Mae, première société de refinancement hypothécaire aux US... (données hebos).

Après la débandade de 2005, le titre s'est repris de belle manière... le débordement des 60$ libèrerait un potentiel de hausse intéressant... pas d'anticipation de krach de ce côté non plus...

Conclusion: En partant du principe que les marchés anticipent les évènements, il est clair qu'il n'y a et qu'il n'y aura aucun krach immobilier aux US dans les mois à venir... cependant, le monde de la construction est en pleine tempête et certains vont y laisser des plumes...

Maintenant, il est vrai que certains micro-marchés souffrent (cf presse US) mais dans son ensemble, le marché tient le coup malgré les hausses conséquentes de taux, comme en Angleterre...

Tout ça me laisse à penser, que le scénario le plus probable est un lent dégonflement et non un krach...

Pour la France, un krach me semble de plus en plus improbable également...je crois que le marché va se retourner tranquillement... (si on peut dire...)

La malédiction !

Comments

[Garrard Jean-Philippe]

Pas terrible votre "prédiction"

[kurt saturax]

un indice anticipe d'environ 6 mois une situation....cette analyse date d'octobre 2006 et que je sache, il ne s'est produit aucun krach dans les 6 mois qui ont suivi...depuis, les choses ont évolué, ce que vous pouvez constater en prenant la peine de lire les analyses suivantes... (et non pas les prédictions...)...

[tollioub]

kurt, lis cet article. C'est instructif : http://www.investors.com/editorial/IBDArticles.asp?artsec=5&issue=20061026

[kurt saturax]

attendons la suite, je crois qu'il ne faut pas se focaliser sur une seule des données... 

[kabul]

je suis daccord sur une seule chose dans ton analyse , Kurt. c'est le titre. en effet le Krach n'est plus a l'horizon , les US sont en plein dedans. Maintenant ce qu'en pense le marché (qui est toujours si bien informé), ca fait une belle jambe a "average Joe" qui n'arrive plus a vendre son bien sans des pertes considerables....quand il y arrive.
Fascinant comme le marché ne se trompe jamais dailleurs.

[kurt saturax]

c'est ce qu'on disait de l'angleterre il n'y a pas si longtemps.... je préfère rester prudent...
je retiens "average Joe" hi hi... pas mal...

[hamster]

et rapport aux chiffres d'aujourd'hui sur l'immo neuf aux us, on peux revisiter la dite analyse ???

[kurt saturax]

les chiffres ne font pas les marchés mais en sont la conséquence...  le marché sait déjà tout ça, d'ailleurs il n'a pas bronché...

[chris]

Une info interessante, vue sur Bloomberg aujourd'hui. Ca plus la stat sur les reventes de logements anciens tombee aujourd'hui... ca fait du grain a moudre . ;-)

Housing in U.S. Poised to Worsen, Derivatives Show (Update2)

By Darrell Hassler and Hamish Risk

Oct. 23 (Bloomberg) -- The slumping U.S. housing market is about to get a lot worse, according to traders of mortgage-backed securities and the so-called derivatives on which they are based.

The ABX index, which measures the risk of owning bonds backed by home-loans to people with poor credit, rose 30 percent since Aug. 9 to the highest since January. There are more than $500 billion of such notes outstanding.

The increase in the index shows traders expect mortgage delinquencies and foreclosures to increase at a time when the number of homes for sale as measured by the National Association of Realtors is at a 13-year high. The percentage of home-loan payments more than 60 days delinquent rose to 7.23 percent in July from 5.9 percent a year earlier, the fastest rate of increase since 1998, Moody's Investors Service said Oct. 17.

``Delinquency trends and home prices'' show a weakening real estate market, said Scott Eichel, head of credit trading for New York-based Bear Stearns & Co., the biggest underwriter of bonds backed by mortgages. ``A lot of investors that have concerns about the housing market'' are using the ABX index to speculate on a continued drop, he said.

Sales of new and existing homes probably will drop 9.4 percent to 6.76 million in 2006 from a record last year, McLean, Virginia-based mortgage buyer Freddie Mac said Oct. 10. Home sales have risen the past five years.

ABX Index

The ABX index, created by London-based Markit Group Ltd., measures the cost, or spread, of credit-default swaps based on the $565 billion of bonds secured by so-called subprime mortgages and home-equity loans. Credit-default swaps are financial instruments based on bonds and loans that are used to speculate on the ability of borrowers to repay debt. An increase in the spread indicates deterioration in the perception of credit quality; a decline suggests improvement.

The index tracks 20 asset-backed securities that contain loans rated BBB-, the lowest level of investment grade debt. Based on the index, it costs an investor $267,000 to protect $10 million of bonds against default for five years, up from $205,000 in August. The investor would get face value for the bonds in exchange for the securities should a borrower fail to adhere to the debt agreements.

`Unequivocally Bad'

``The unequivocally bad housing data we've seen'' is prompting investors to seek to profit from potential declines in mortgage-backed securities, said Greg Lippmann, the head of asset-backed trading at Deutsche Bank AG in New York who helped create the ABX indexes in January.

Contracts covering $5 billion of home-loan debt change hands daily, he said. Derivatives are contracts whose value is derived from stocks, bonds, loans, currencies and commodities, or linked to specific events such as changes in interest rates or the weather.

The housing boom spawned new types of mortgages that allowed consumers to buy homes they may not have been able to afford otherwise.

About 18 percent of all mortgages issued in the first half of the year were to borrowers considered most likely to default, such as those with high credit-card balances, up from 2.4 percent in 1998, based on data from the Mortgage Bankers Association. The Washington-based trade group's 2,700 members represent 70 percent of the home-loan business.

The amount of bonds backed by subprime loans more than doubled since 2001, according to the Bond Market Association, a New York-based trade group of more than 200 securities firms.

Worst Month

A Merrill Lynch & Co. index of debt securities derived from home-equity loans rated AA to BBB is having its worst month this year, falling 0.01 percent. They have returned 4.54 percent since the end of December. Banks and lenders such as Countrywide Financial Corp. in Calabasas, California, and Washington Mutual Inc. of Seattle typically take mortgages and package them into bonds for sale to investors. The bonds are then divided into pieces of varying risk.

All asset-backed securities, which also includes loans packaged from credit-card and student debt, have returned 4.27 percent this year on average.

More borrowers are finding it harder to meet interest payments following 17 interest-rate increases by the Federal Reserve since mid-2004.

The default rate for subprime loans rose to 7.35 percent in July from 5.51 percent a year earlier, according to investment bank Friedman Billings Ramsey Group Inc. in Arlington Virginia.

Nine percent of all subprime loans made in 2006 may default within five years, the worst performance since at least 1998, Glenn Schultz, head of asset-backed securities at Charlotte, North Carolina-based Wachovia Corp., said in an Oct. 17 report.

`More Visibility'

``People have a little more visibility on the slowdown than they did two or three months ago,'' said Andrew Chow, who manages $5.5 billion of asset-backed securities and credit-default swaps at Seneca Capital Management in San Francisco.

Bill Gross, manager of the world's biggest bond fund at Pacific Investment Management Co. in Newport Beach, California, forecasts the housing slump will cause the economy to slow and force the Fed to lower interest rates to 4.5 percent next year. The central bank's target for overnight loans between banks is 5.25 percent. Pimco is a unit of Munich-based Allianz SE.

The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo said on Oct. 17 that its index of builder confidence this month rose to 31 from 30 in September, the first increase in a year.

Housing starts in September rose to an annual rate of 1.772 million from a 1.674 million pace in August, the Commerce Department in Washington said Oct. 18. The median estimate of 61 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was for a decline to an annual rate of 1.64 million.

Falling Prices

Even with the gains, the National Association of Realtors this month predicted prices of new homes may fall for the first time in 15 years. The trade group on Oct. 11 estimates that the median price of a new U.S. home probably will drop 0.2 percent to $240,500. The inventory of homes on the market rose to a record 3.92 million, the group said Sept. 25.

Most credit-default swap trading is in securities rated BBB or BBB- because they are the most volatile and have the greatest chance to be profitable, said Jack McCleary, head of asset-backed trading for UBS AG in New York.

Subprime mortgages with those credit ratings historically have had losses of about 5 percent of the loan value, McCleary said. Some investors are betting that losses may increase to 12 to 14 percent in the next three years, which could exponentially increase value of credit-default swaps, he said.

``In effect, it's a lottery ticket,'' he said.